After nearly 6 months of submissions, objections, counter-objections, followed by the AEC wanting to tease out the potential outcomes, we finally have the draft redistribution for the Federal Seats of New South Wales. Whilst the headline change is not overly surprising, it is the impacts that it has had on other seats, coupled with where other people may run, that has captured the imagination of political nerds throughout Greater Sydney.

Let’s start with the Headline. As predicted, North Sydney and Warringah has effectively been merged into one seat, with this new seat taking on the Warringah name.

The new Warringah takes on the entire North Sydney Council, the Entire Mosman Council and the southern section of the Northern Beaches, losing Forestville, Killarney Heights and North Curl Curl to Mackellar. Whilst this isn’t surprising, it does mean that there are some juicy scenarios to play out.

The first one is the big one, being that current MP for North Sydney Kylea Tink, is notionally out of a job. She will be on the hunt for a new seat. Given her base, the most logical move for her will be in the new Bradfield, which has shifted south, taking the entirety of Willoughby Council from the old North Sydney, while losing the remains of Asquith, Waitara, Hornsby and Normanhurst to Berowra. However, this would pit herself against Nicolette Boele, the self-appointed “Shadow Member for Bradfield”, potentially giving Simon Holmes a Court, a bigger headache.

Holmes a Court now has a big decision to make as to how he handles this situation, especially given that Berowra has been strengthened for Julian Leeser, and that Bennelong has now taken over both Lane Cove Council and Hunter Hill Council (both from the old North Sydney Seat), whilst shedding Epping and North Epping (to Berowra) and Ermington (to Parramatta), making Bennelong a Notional Liberal Seat.

The other juicy story to come out of the redistributions for Northern Sydney is that with Forestville and Killarney Heights now moving into Mackellar, this is expected to drag over one very significant Liberal Party Branch into Mackellar, being Tony Abbott’s old seat.

The Ghost of Tony Abbott could now well shift from Warringah to Mackellar, not only giving the Liberal Party more headaches as they try to find a candidate with a pulse, but also gives the Teals a golden opportunity to extend the margin for Sophie Scamps. However, this could also give the Liberal Party to establish someone to run in Warringah that is not from the Right of the party, given that one of its biggest right-wing branches will now be moved on.

One of the more under-rated changes for seats occurred with the Division of Macquarie. A seat that has a rich history, in terms of the people who have represented the seat, along with where it represents, the latest change for what has been a measuring stick for the outcome of an election is small, in terms of the physical boundary change, but significant in terms of the impact that it will have on the seat. Macquarie picks up Emu Plains and Leroy from Lindsay.

This is only a small area, but it is an area that is so friendly to the Liberal Party that it has significantly cut Labor’s Margin in the seat, along with also cutting the Liberal Party’s margin in Lindsay.

This has, once again, opened up the possibility of the next federal election being won in the outskirts of Greater Sydney.

With that completed, the general public will now have an opportunity to respond to this draft redistribution, with the objections expected to be published from 15th July, giving everyone one month.

This will then be followed by the comments on these objections, before the AEC announces the final boundaries.

This is currently scheduled to be completed in October, which means it is highly unlikely that there will be a federal election in 2024, with the most likely period for a federal election being in March-May next year.