IF the 2019 Australian Federal Election was described as the ‘Great Miracle’, then the 2022 election could be described as the ‘Great Correction’, as the Liberal-National Coalition, led by Scott Morrison, lost government, ending 9 years of Centre-Right rule within Australia.

For only the 8th time since World War 2, there has been a change in plurality within the House of Representative. However, at the time of writing, it does appear that Australia will be heading to a Minority Government for only the 2nd time since WW2. The difference is that unlike in 2010, the pathway to a Minority Government is significantly more straight forward.

What has happened on the North Shore?

WITH North Sydney changing hands from the Liberal Party to the Teal-Independents, the Liberal Party were able to retain their other two seats within the North Shore, albeit with significantly re-duced margins.

Within Bradfield, long-standing MP Paul Fletcher suffered a primary swing against him of 15.3%, with most of that swing going to the Teal-Independent of Nicolette Boele. Despite this, Fletcher will hang on to the seat, with a 2CP swing against him of 12.1%, the first time that the Division of Bradfield has been forced to a preference count to determine a winner.

It was much smoother sailing for Julian Leeser within Berowra who, despite suffering a Primary Swing against him of 7.7%, still managed to comfortably win his seat on a 2CP of just about 60% against Benson Koschinski (LAB), with Leeser being one of the few Liberal MP’s within the Metro-politan region of Sydney not to face a significant Teal-Independent Challenge.

The other story to come from the Greater Northern Sydney Region came from Warringah, where Prime Minister’s ‘Captain Pick’ of Katherine Deves ending up completely backfiring on the Liberal Party. The performance of Deves saw the Liberal Party suffer a further 5.2% Primary Swing against them, meaning that Independent Zali Steggall managed to achieve a further 1.8% Primary Swing in her favour and a 2CP Swing of 3.5%.

What happened nationally?

So, if it was clear that the Liberal-National Coalition had lost the election, why is it that there is technically no winner? 

Simply put, this election saw the biggest fracturing of voting in Australian Federal Election History, with the lowest Votes for the 2 major parties (Labor and Liberal-National Coalition) in history, sitting at 69%. 

While the Liberal-National Coalition suffered their worst Primary Vote Performance in History (including dating back to the days of the Coalition between the Nationalist Party and the Country Party), The Australian Labor Party also suffered their worst Primary Vote Performance in history. 

The Liberal-National Coalition suffered a primary swing of -5.3%, while the ALP experienced a primary swing of -0.5%, with their respective Primary Shares ending at 36.2% and 32.8%.

While the Greens, One Nation and United Australia Party all experienced small gains, the first big story of the night was the growth of votes for Independents, which was up 2.1% to 10.4% (almost matching the Greens) and seeing one of the biggest shocks ever witnessed in Australian Federal Political History.

Where are we now?

As it currently stands (sourced from the ABC),  the ALP currently sits on 76 seats, needing 1 more seat to achieve an absolute majority. 

However, this will not be the full majority, as it is expected that the ALP will have to provide The Speaker for the House of Representatives. To cover this off, they will need 77 seats. 

At this stage, the ALP will achieve 76 seats, having won Macnamara (VIC). But all eyes will now be on the Division of Gilmore, where former NSW Treasurer and Transport Minister Andrew Constance is in a neck-and-neck battle with Fiona Phillips for the seat. A win for Labor here would give Anthony Albanese the 77 seats needed to be able to give the Speakership and still hold a majority in the House of Representatives. 

Given the steady stream of Postal, Absentee and Declaration votes to come, it may be, at least, another week before the result is known from this election.

This will not deter Anthony Albanese, who can effective govern as a minority government, only needing less than a handful of supporters from the Cross-Bench to give their support on Confidence and Supply. 

With so many options to choose from, this shouldn’t be a challenge and it means that the ALP, despite not having a majority at this stage, will still be able to function as if they have a majority government.

Where to next?

There is little doubt that the ALP will be governing Australia, with a very slim majority government (no more than 1). While the ALP have done enough to limit the damage to themselves, the same cannot be said for the L-NP Coalition, who now face the confirmed scenario of Peter Dutton taking over as Leader of the Liberal Party, following the resignation of Scott Morrison. Despite all the pressure of the Teal Independents to try and bring the Liberal Party back to the Centre-Right, it does look very likely that the outcomes could well push the Liberal Party further to the right, as all of the seats lost by the Liberal Party were held by ‘Moderate’ Liberals’. The Liberal Party will have a significant struggle over the next 2 years to work out where they now sit within the political landscape.

For Anthony Albanese, while he does have a term to set up the image for the next Labor Government, he will likely be put under pressure by the Teal Independents to respect their mandates, along with the pressure from the Greens, who have achieved their best seat numbers in the House of Representatives. While he will be able to function effectively, he doesn’t quite have the stability of the last outright Labor win, where Kevin Rudd managed to get over 80 seats in the House of Representatives.

For the Teal Independents, it was a major success for themselves and for Climate 200, as they achieved nearly all their goals. They will now need to pivot and demonstrate to the electorate that they are not a one-hit wonder and that they can produce a voice to function effectively within Parliament. The biggest risk that they run is that they burn the political capital offered to them by the people, in the same way that Tony Windsor and Rob Oakshott burned the capital in the fall-out from the 2010 Election and the Hung Parliament situation that ensued.

They say Change the Government, Change the Nation. The Nation will certainly be changing! Where to next? We will have to wait and see for the next 3 years.